In an interesting article in the New England Journal of Medicine, Asch and
colleagues pose the question - are we in a medical education bubble?
They argue that we probably are not, but might be
approaching one. "We would realize we have
been in one if a sudden collapse in what patients are willing to pay doctors
made it impossible to sell medical education at current prices, causing
applications to fall and some medical schools to cut tuition to continue to
attract qualified applicants.
So here is an interesting
fact from a Bloomberg article by Elizabeth Lopatto published Oct 24:"Total
medical school applications increased 6.1 percent to more than 48,000, breaking
a record set in 1996, according to data released today by the Association
of American Medical Colleges. The number of students who enrolled this year
rose 2.8 percent, exceeding 20,000 for the first time, the group said."
This increase in medical school places is because
"Hospitals and medical schools have been trying to find solutions to a
doctor shortage that is projected to grow 10-fold to 130,000 by 2025 as the
Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act adds at least 25 million new
patients to the health system."
However, the more worrying part of all of this is who
will employ graduating medical students?
"One of the biggest challenges will be what happens
when the students finish their initial studies. More than 75 percent of
residency programs -- where graduate medical students train for three to seven
years before working independently -- are funded by the U.S. Medicare program,
which is being subjected to mandatory federal budget cuts. In
addition Congress has kept the number of slots capped at the same level since
1997."
It looks like the bubble will burst if more residency
slots are not opened up!
